Börsipäev 21. november
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Neljapäevase positiivse sessiooni järel võeti reedel taas veidi kasumit, mis päädis S&P 500 indeksi jaoks -0,2% langusega. Suurema osa päevast kauples punases ka Stoxx 600, sulgudes lõpuks -0,4% kaotusega. Nädala lõpetas S&P 500 0,8% kõrgemal, Stoxx 600 kosus 0,6%, kuigi liikumised Euroopa börsidel erinesid üsna drastiliselt (Saksamaa -0,03%, Itaalia -3,3%, Hispaania -0,2%, Prantsusmaa +0,3%).
Nädalavahetusel lõpetas Angela Merkel kuid kestnud spekulatsiooni ning teatas, et kavatseb kandideerida järgmistel valimistel neljandat korda Saksamaa kantsleriks, nentides et valimised saavad olema raskemad kui varasemad alates Saksamaa ühendamisest 1990.a, arvestades Brexitit, populismi kasvu, põgenike kriisi ning USA võimalikku uut suunda Donald Trumpi juhtimisel. Finantsturud näevad Merkelit stabiliseeriva jõuna, kuid enne 2017.a teises pooles toimuvaid üleriigilisi valimis tuleb tal saada taasvalituks ka oma erakonna juhi kohale.
Mõnevõrra ootamatu tulemusega lõppes pühapäeval Prantsusmaal parempoolsete presidendikandidaatide eelvalimiste esimene voor, kus Nicolas Sarkozy tunnistas kaotust ning endine peaminister Francois Fillon kogus 44% häältest pikalt soosikuks loetud Alain Juppe ees, kes sai 28% häältest. Fillon ja Juppe seisavad vastamisi käesoleval pühapäeval toimuvas teise vooru valimises ning võitjal tuleb kevadel rinda pista Euroopa vastase platvormiga Marine Le Peniga.
Uus nädal algab ilma olulisemate majandusuudisteta ning tõenäoliselt ei üllata turgusid millegi uuega ka Euroopa Keskpanga president ja Föderaalreservi asepresident oma tänastes esinemistes. OPECi ametnikud ja naftaministrid kohtuvad täna Viinis, et üritada 30. novembri ametliku miitingu eel juba kokkulepet paika saada. WSJ kohaselt kavatseb Iraak teha ettepaneku, mis muudaks liikmete jaoks nafta toodangu vähendamise kergemaks. Iraan ja Venemaa on samuti optimistlikud kokkuleppe saavutamise osas.
15.00 FEDi Stanley Fischer esineb
18.00 EKP Mario Draghi esineb Euroopa Parlamendis -
Goldman usub, et OPEC kärbib nafta tootmist ning tõstab WTI tuleva aasta Q1 ja Q2 hinnasihte
• Sees WTI at $55 in both 1Q and 2Q next year, from prior estimates of $45 and $50/bbl, Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin say in note.
• Also lowers 3Q, 4Q to $50 from $55, $60 previously
• Taking a “tactically bullish” outlook on “stronger OPEC cut rationale”
• “For the purpose of our oil price forecast, our base case is now that an OPEC production cut will be announced and implemented with OPEC production at 33.0m b/d in 1H17 and a Russia freeze at 11.6m b/d”
• More confident that global oil market will shift into deficit by 2H17 even with OPEC production above current levels -
BofA, kes tõstis oktoobri keskpaigas Euroopa pangandussektori overweight tasemele, peab targemaks pärast viimase kuu tõusu ning eelseisvaid poliitilisi riske arvestades soovitust tagasi langetada
* Bank sector downgraded to neutral partly as hedge against event risks from Italian referendum, Italian banks recapitalization, BofAML says in European equity strategy note.
* Positioning, valuations, momentum and recent move in bond yields mean it’s good time to reduce exposure in banks
* Says there are now fewer shorts in banks, investors now net overweight
* Positioning data also signals hedge funds may have built long positions in bank sector
* Says reduce underweight in Food & Bev and Retail to fund change
* BofA upgraded bank sector in mid-October -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CMCM +7%, YY +4.3%, IGT +4.3%
M&A news:
HW +17.5% (to be acquired by Boral Limited for $24.25 per share)
MSTX +15.6% (announced it has received several written indications of interest from privately-held companies)
LOCK +14.6% (to be acquired for $24 per share by Symantec (SYMC))
AMCC +10.3% (to be acquired by MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) for approx. $8.36/share)
Select shipping related names showing continued strength: RLOG +13.8%, DRYS +8.4%, DCIX +6.7%, ATW +6%
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:
VALE +4.3%, GFI +3.1%, FCX +3%, AU +2.6%, AUY +2.6%, BBL +2.3%, GOLD +2%, BHP +1.9%, RIO +1.9%, NEM +1.6%, KGC +1.5%, ABX +1.3%, GDX +1.2%
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: CHK +4.4%, PBR +3.8%, WLL +3.5%, OAS +3%, BP +2%, TOT +1.7%
Other news:
LVS +2.1% (still checking, but may be in sympathy with MPEL upgrade)
OMER +1.4% (announces 'successful' results from its post-marketing clinical trial of the effect of OMIDRIA 1% / 0.3% in pediatric patients undergoing cataract surgery)
FB +1.2% (discloses $6.0 billion stock buyback)
C +0.8% (will increase its common stock repurchase program by up to $1.75 billion)
Analyst comments:
ZTO +3.2% (initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
MPEL +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse)
CNX +2% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley)
HSBC +1.5% (upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Bernstein)
MPWR +1.4% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James)
NFLX +0.9% (initiated with a Buy at Brean Capital)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
TSN -9.2%, CSIQ -1.9%
M&A news:
AIXG -5.5% (CFIUS plans to recommend that the company's pending acquisition by Grand Chip Investment be prohibited)
Other news:
ACOR -13.1% (announces that the MILESTONE clinical study did not show sufficient efficacy to support further development of dalfampridine to improve post-stroke walking difficulties)
SAFM -5.4% (in sympathy with TSN)
PPC -4.4% (in sympathy with TSN)
IBN -1.5% (in tandem with Sensex, which closed -1.5% today)
Analyst comments:
CEMP -4.1% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Cowen)
AMFW -3% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas)
ANF -1.7% (downgraded to Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts)
MMM -1.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
Briefing.com
