Börsipäev 16. veebruar
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USA oodatust tugevamad majandusnäitajad surusid tagaplaanile diskussiooni kõrgematest intressimääradest ning lootus ettevõtete positiivsemast kasumi väljavaatest aitas S&P 500 indeksil lukku lüüa järjekordse võiduka päeva (+0,5%).
Pangandussektori eestvedamisel liikus Stoxx 600 seitsmendat päeva kõrgemale (0,3%), mis on indeksi pikim tõususeeria viimase 19 kuu jooksul. Suurima ralli sooritasid Huhtamaki +8.7%, Credit Agricole +4.8%, Heineken +3.7%, Sydbank +3.4%, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari +3.1%. Enim langesid indeksis TUI -7.2%, Ageas -5.9%, Marine Harvest -4.9%, Gerresheimer -4.6%, NEX Group -4.0%.
Pärast pettumuse valmistanud pühade müüki näitas USA jaemüügi statistika, et ostjad on aasta alguses taas julgemalt kulutama hakanud. Pärast 0,3% kuist kasvu novembris ning 0,1% tõusu detsembris suurenes jaanuari jaemüük autosid ja kütust arvestamata 0,7%, ületades analüütikute 0,3% ootust. Kuigi nominaalsel tasandil viitab see esimeses kvartalis tugevamale tarbimisele, siis vastupidiselt konsensuse ootusele kiirenenud inflatsioon (energiat ja toitu arvestamata jaanuaris 2,3% vs prognoositud 2,1%) muudab reaalset tarbimist kahvatumaks. See oli üks põhjustest, miks Atlanta FED korrigeeris oma esimese kvartali reaalse SKP kasvuootust 2,7% pealt 2,2%le (seejuures korrigeerit tarbijate kulutuste kasv 3,1% pealt 2,8%le).
USA tööstustoodang alanes jaanuaris -0,3% võrreldes detsembriga. Ehkki tegemist oli oodatust pehmema näitajaga (prog 0,0%), mõjutas seda sooja talve tõttu kahanenud kommunaalsektori toodang. Töötleva tööstuse toodang kasvas jaanuaris ootuspärased 0,2% ning kui välja jätta veel autotööstus, kasvas toodang 0,5% ehk enim alates 2014.a sügisest. Arvestades NY piirkonna töötleva tööstuse veebruarikuu aktiivsuse hüpet 6,5 punktilt 18,7 punktile (kõrgeim alates 2014.a septembrist), viitavad esimesed märgid sektori toodangu edasisele kasvule veebruaris.
Kui varasemalt on Jaapani keskpanga juht öelnud, et majanduse rahapoliitiline stimuleerimine aitab kompenseerida võimalikke negatiivseid tagajärgi pankade jaoks, siis nüüd on ta muutunud pankade kasumlikkuse pärast murelikumaks. Tema sõnul võib madalatest intressimääradest tingitud finantsinstitutsioonide kesine kasumlikkus kombineerituna varipanganduse kasvu ning finantstehnoloogia arenguga muuta globaalset panganduskeskkonda ja külvata seemneid teist tüüpi finantskriisiks. Mõnevõrra tugevam jeen vedas Nikkei indeksit -0,5% allapoole, kui üldiselt jäi meeleolu Aasias öösel positiivseks.
Tänase börsipäeva keskmes saavad olema peamiselt Ühendriikide majandusnäitajaid, millest kõige olulisemad on jaanuaris alustatud elamuehituste ja väljastatud ehituslubade arv. Lisaks selguvad möödunud nädala esmased töötu abiraha taotlused ning Philadelphia töötleva tööstuse veebruari aktiivsusindeks.
09.00 Eurotsooni uute autode registreerimine (jaanuar)
13.30 FEDi Stanley Fischer esineb Bloombergis
14.30 Euroopa Keskpanga istungi protokoll
15.30 USA alustatud elamuehitused (jaanuar)
15.30 USA väljastatud ehitusload (jaanuar)
15.30 USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused
15.30 USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse küsitlus (veebruar)
22.10 FEDi Williams esineb -
Euroopa Liidus kasvas uute autode registreerimine jaanuaris aastaga 10,2% (detsembris 3,0%)
• VW Group sales rise 10% y/y
• PSA Group sales rise 6.5% y/y
• Renault Group sales rise 10% y/y
• Opel Group sales rise 5.3% y/y
• Ford sales rise 9.5% y/y
• FCA Group sales rise 15.2% y/y
• BMW Group sales rise 10.3% y/y
• Daimler sales rise 14.3% y/y
• Toyota Group sales rise 11.9% y/y
• Nissan sales rise 4.1% y/y -
Uutest tippudest hoolimata langes USA väikeinvestorite seas pullide osakaal sel nädalal 35,8% pealt 33,09%le, karude osakaal aga kerkis 27,65% pealt 32,36%le ning neutraalsete osa taandus 36,54%lt 34,55%le.
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UPGRADES:
* Bank of America (BAC) raised to outperform at Macquarie, PT $28
* Cavium (CAVM) raised to buy at BofAML, PT $85
* Chimera (CIM) raised to market perform at Wells Fargo
* Colliers International (CIGI CN) raised to outperform at CIBC, PT $50
* Conifex Timber (CFF CN) raised to outperform at RBC, PT C$4.50
* Devon (DVN) raised to buy at SocGen, PT $55
* Evercore Partners (EVR) raised to buy at BofAML, PT $95
* ITT Inc. (ITT) raised to outperform at Oppenheimer, PT $50
* MDC Partners (MDCA) raised to buy at Jefferies, PT $12
* Manitowoc Foodservice (MFS) raised to outperform at Baird, PT $22
* NetApp (NTAP) raised to market perform at William Blair
* PrairieSky Royalty (PSK CN) raised to outperform at Raymond James
* SunPower (SPWR) raised to outperform at Oppenheimer, PT $10
* Westshore Terminals (WTE CN) raised to outperform at RBC, PT C$30
DOWNGRADES:
* Analog Devices (ADI) cut to market perform at Wells Fargo
* Angie’s List (ANGI) cut to sell at Roth Capital, PT $4.75
* Blackhawk Network (HAWK) cut to neutral at Credit Suisse, PT $36
* Conformis (CFMS) cut to hold at Canaccord, PT $7
* Integrated Device (IDTI) cut to neutral at BofAML, PT $27
* Ixia (XXIA) cut to hold at Stifel, PT $19.65
* Kraft Heinz (KHC) cut to neutral at Susquehanna
* Molina (MOH) cut to hold at Stifel, PT $45
* Och-Ziff (OZM) cut to neutral at JPMorgan
* Taubman Centers (TCO) cut to equal-weight at Morgan Stanley, PT $71
* Teck Resources (TCK/B CN) cut to hold at Deutsche Bank, PT $24
* Tesaro (TSRO) cut to market perform at FBR, PT $202
* Wells Fargo (WFC) cut to neutral at Credit Suisse, PT $56
INITIATIONS:
* Communications Sales (CSAL) rated new outperform at Wells Fargo
* Salesforce (CRM) rated new hold at Needham -
Nopped EKP jaanuari istungi protokollist
*ECB policy makers “widely agreed” to maintain stimulus at Jan. 18-19 meeting because “otherwise, recent
encouraging developments in inflation expectations and the prospects for a sustained adjustment in inflation towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim could be put at risk.”
* “Members widely shared assessment” that “underlying inflation pressures had remained subdued and signs of a convincing upward trend were still lacking”
* “Broad agreement” to look through higher headline inflation
* While the wage-setting calendar “could have a significant impact on wage dynamics looking ahead,” agreements staggered over time and with multi-year horizons suggest “that any second-round effects would unfold rather slowly”
* Downside risks to growth outlook receded “somewhat,” risks surrounding scenario of gradually firming recovery “were starting to become more balanced” -
USA alustatud elamuehitused alanesid jaanuaris annualiseeritult 1,279mln pealt 1,246mln peale (oodati 1,226mln)
USA väljastatud ehitusload kerkisid jaanuaris annualiseeritult 1,228 mln pealt 1,285 mln peale (oodati 1,230mln)
USA esmased töötu abiraha taotlused kasvasid eelmisel nädalal 234 tuhandelt 239 tuhandele (oodati 245 tuhat)
USA Philadelphia FEDi töötleva tööstuse aktiivsusindeks kerkis veebruaris 23,6 punktilt 43,3 punktile (oodati 18,0), mis on kõrgeim alates 1984.a. Oranžiga on tähistatud FEDi intressimäära vahemiku alumine äär. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
WINT +16.9%, TIVO +13.6%, CSLT +12.7%, SNPS +7.6%, NTES +7.3%, KATE +6.8%, (also announce it is reviewing strategic alternatives) NTAP +5.3%
QUIK +4.2%, CRY +4.1%, SRCL +4%, NGD +3.9%, TPX +3.9%, ALXN +3.4%, LBTYA +3.3%, CIR +3.3%, GNCA +2.4%, NMIH +2.1%, GG +2%, ABX +2%
CHH +1.7%, CSCO +1.6%, SHPG +1.6%, EQIX +1.4%, AMAT +1.4%, SSNC +1.3%, PBFX +1.2%, GFI +1.2%, CVA +1%, TRP +1%
M&A news:
HGG +17.5% (HHGregg confirms plans to explore strategic alternatives)
RAD +2.6% (Walgreens (WBA) is optimistic regarding FTC approval for RAD M&A deal due to divesture package, according to NY Post)
BIDU +0.5% (acquired digital assistant startup Raven Tech, according to TechCrunch)
Other news:
XTLB +58.4% (continued strength), SCON +42.6% (receives a U.S. Patent enabled by STI's proprietary superconducting wire manufacturing method)
MDGS +37.4% (announces tha tthe China FDA has approved the commencement of the first multi-center MUSE Clinical Study in China)
CVRS +22.7% (Corindus Vascular Robotics announces a distribution agreement w/ a subsidiary of Mitsubishi (MSBHY); includes an initial order for 12 CorPath GRX Systems accompanied by an advance of $2 million toward the purchase price), RUBI +11% (still checking), BLDP +7.6% (receives 5-year, $25 mln deal Broad-Ocean Motor Co)
PGNX +5.6% (to join S&P SmallCap 600), SFLY +3.1% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
VRX +2.6% (FDA approves Siliq to treat adults with moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis)
TTM +2.3% (Tata Motors and and Microsoft (MSFT) India confirm that cos will collaborate on connected cars)
FOLD +2.1% (presents additional positive preliminary Phase 1/2 Data; demonstrates improving trends in majority of patients)
FL +1.3% (increases quarterly dividend to $0.31/share from $0.28/share; approves a new 3-year $1.2 bln share repurchase program extending through January 2020, replacing the previous $1 bln program; approves $277 mln capital expenditure program for 2017)
GSK +1% (in sympathy with SHPG earnings)
ALGN +0.9% (announces it has prevailed in proceedings initiated by ClearCorrect Operating that challenged the validity of three of its U.S. patents)
Analyst comments:
MDCA +4.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance:
CFMS -38.6%, GNC -20.4%, BBW -17.6%, MOH -16.7%, CLD -14.8%, (Cloud Peak Energy replaces its throughput agreement with Westshore Terminals Limited Partnership)
OMCL -10.8%, HAWK -9%, CAR -8.1%, AVP -6.1%, DF -6.1%, TRIP -5.8%, GDDY -5.8%, HOS -5%, MGM -4.7%, SPWR -4.6%, GEL -4%, CF -3.6%
CAB -3.3%, MZOR -3.2%, LSCC -2.8%, MMLP -2.7%, (commences 2.6 mln common units offering), CNNX -2.7%, CYS -2.5%, AEM -2.4%, KHC -2.2%
HIMX -1.9%, WM -1.8%, KGC -1.3%, CBS -1.1%, NCI -1.1%, QTWO -1%, NICE -1%, BCOR -1%, CSV -0.9%, DUK -0.9%
Other news:
ACUR -32.8% (to be delisted from the Nasdaq; will begin to trade on the OTCQB on February 23)
EVOK -10.3% (intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in a 'firm commitment' underwritten public offering)
NGL -6% (upsizes offering by 800K units and prices 8.8 mln common units for gross proceeds of $198 mln)
CRSP -5.7% (CRISPR Therapeutics to host call to provide update on the CRISPR/Cas9 U.S. patent interference proceedings and corresponding U.K. patents tomorrow February 16 at 11am ET)
MMLP -2.7% (commences 2.6 mln common units offering)
ATKR -2.4% (commences 8 mln common stock offering by selling stockholder CD&R Allied Holdings, L.P., an affiliate of Clayton, Dubilier & Rice)
TRU -2.1% (prices secondary offering by certain of its stockholders of 19.85 mln shares of common stock)
CNC -2% (MOH earnings/guidance sympathy)
HTZ -1.4% (CAR sympathy)
FRSH -0.9% (announces a strategic realignment of resources aimed at better supporting franchise-owners and field staff while reducing overall SG&A expenses; expects to achieve annual cost savings of $1.5 million)
Analyst comments:
OZM -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan)
GRPN -2.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Wedbush)
WFC -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse)
Briefing.com
