Balti turud (OMXBaltic)
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Septembrikuu on toonud balti turule päris põneva pöörde. Karud on lähti pääsenud ja turgu veidike allapoole toonud. Ise oleks oodanud, et müüakse kohe bidi (kiire langus) aga hetkel sellist agresiivset müüki pole märganud. Aktsiad, mis on tublisti langenud, neid pullid vaikselt alt juba ostavad aga keegi ei hakka veel askist võtma (PTR1L). Samas vaadata juba langenud aktsiaid siis nende ask suht hõre (GRD1R) ja ausalt öelda, siis neid müüagi väga keeruline. Aga aeg ajalt ikka mõni karu tahab mõõtu võtta (SAB1L). Ilmselt on hetkel juba hilja lühikeseks müüa. Pigem oodata veel turgu allapoole ja osta vaba kapitali eest odavalt juurde (OEG1T). Samas ootan põnevusega kuna karud jõuavad SFG1T ja LHV1T kallale.
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lindprii
Ilmselt on hetkel juba hilja lühikeseks müüa.
meil on mingi teenusepakuja, kes pakub lühikeseks müümise võimalust? -
Meil aktsiaid laenata ei saa. Seega balti kontekstis tähendab see seda, et kui sa omad aktsiaid siis saad müüa lühikeseks. Panustades langusele. Kui hind languenud võtad pika positsiooni madalama hinnaga tagasi. Proffit.
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lindprii
Meil aktsiaid laenata ei saa. Seega balti kontekstis tähendab see seda, et kui sa omad aktsiaid siis saad müüa lühikeseks. Panustades langusele. Kui hind languenud võtad pika positsiooni madalama hinnaga tagasi. Proffit.
ära ikka sellist kelbast ka oma lolli jutu toetuseks postita. Uuri järgi, mida aktsia lühikeseks müümine tähendab. Praegu sa räägid lihtsalt positsiooni likvideerimisest, mitte lühikeseks müümisest. -
Pikaks - idee teenida raha tõusval turul
Lühikeseks - idee teenida raha langeval turul
Kui pikaks nimetatakse strateegiat osta madalalt ja müü kõrgelt.
Kuidas siis nimetatalse vastupidist strateegiat, müü kõrgelt ja osta madalat?
Kui öelda sulgen pika positsiooni, siis see ei anna infot selle kohta, et soovin sama aktisat alt odavamalt osta. -
Jeerum. Piinlik pole? Loe natuke investopeediat või midagi, praegu proovid mingeid oma definitsioone anda asjadele mis on ammu ja väga konkreetselt teisiti defineeritud. Short selling
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Bloombergis oli artikkel: Latvia Probes Multiple Unnamed Banks Over North Korea Ties
Latvia is looking into connections between several unnamed local lenders and a Turkish company sanctioned by the U.S. for attempting to supply North Korea with weapons and luxury goods.
Already grappling with the closure of its No. 3 lender and bribery charges against its central bank governor, the latest allegations stem from Oct. 4 action by the Treasury Department against SIA Falcon Group, which has an entity in Latvia. The U.S. froze its American property and interests, and prohibited citizens from dealing with it.
Attempts to reach Falcon’s offices in Riga by phone revealed the lines had been disconnected. No one was able to comment at its Istanbul location.
“We’ll have a strategic analysis and the security police will be involved,” Ilze Znotina, director of the Financial Intelligence Unit, said Monday in an interview, declining to identify the banks that held accounts for Falcon.
Viimastel aastatel:
* Ukio Bankas moratoorium
* ABLV pankrott ja USA sanktsioonid
* Dankse Bank AML probleem
* Versobank AML probleem ja krediidiasutuse tegevusluba tühistatud, pank suletud
* Läti keskpanga juhil altkäemaksu võtmise kahtlus
Pole just ilus uudisvoog.
SAB1L ja LHV1T on pikemat aega aktsiahinna osas paigal püsinud. Arvan, et teatud AML-discount on hindadele sisse kaubeldud. Kui nüüd Lätist veel mingeid AML uudiseid tuleb, siis on raske argumenteerida, et tegemist on üksikute ja isoleeritud kaasustega. -
Vaadates Šiaulių Bankase (SAB1L) suurt käivet viimastel börsipäevadel, eriti täna, ja lugedes uudiseid halvenevast konjunktuurist maailma majanduses, kas siis praegu on hetk, kus tark raha lahkub börsidelt ja müüb väärtpabereid eelkõige seal kus on hetkel ostjaid?
Pankade aktsiad on on kõige vastuvõtlikumad majanduse kõikumistele.
Või on SAB-i puhul lihtsalt tegemist kasumivõtuga? -
"Kauaks küll" tekitaski küsimuse, et kas praegune suur käive on targa raha lahkumine, sest kui turud kukkuma hakkavad, on juba hilja. Vaadates aktsia SAB-i aktsia hinda ja kasumit ning oodatavat kasumit, siis ma küll müüma ei kipuks. Aga see kõik eeldab, et maailmamajandus on lähiaastatel stabiilne või väikeses kasvus ja just viimane ei pruugi täituda.
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EPL vahendab huvitavat initsiatiivi: 15 aastat Balti aktsiaid promonud Wallander: sa pead suutma viie sekundiga selgeks teha, miks tasub Balti ettevõtet osta
Eestis elav rootsi analüütik Mattias Wallander on juba üle 15 aasta püüdnud aidata Balti ettevõtete aktsiaid välismaa investeerimisfondidele müüa. See töö pole kunagi olnud kergete killast. Nüüd üritab ta teist korda käivitada Balti aktsiaid analüüsivat idufirmat Enlight Research.
Kas ka mõjuga? Kapitali sissevooluga Baltikumi aktsiatesse?
No võttes arvesse asjaolu, et 15 aastat on teenust proovitud käivitada, siis kahjuks mõju tundub väheseks jäävat. Loota muidugi võib.
Üldiselt Balti aktsiaturgude aktiveerimiseks on vaja paari "võluainet":
• väikeinvestorite laiaulatuslik ja massiline harimine investeerimise valdkonnas, et säästudena hoitav raha ei seisaks mitte pangakontodel vaid oleks paigutatud kas aktsiatesse või paremal juhul isegi startup-ettevõttes töötamisest saadavatesse optsioonidesse.
• Balti turud tuleb ühendada mõne suurema börsioperaatori platvormiga mis annaks kas kohalikele maakleritele (ja seeläbi kohalikele investotitele) odava ja otseligipääsu välisturgudele, või tõstetaks Balti turud suurema börsi koos-seisu. Võimalikke valikuid kaks: Skandinaavia ja Poola, mis mõlemad on üsna atraktiivsed ja huvitavad ökosüsteemid. Kui Balti ettevõtted oleks ilma täiendava lisakuluta ligipääsetavad suurema operaatori investorbaasile, siis oleks rahvusvaheliste fondide ligipääsetavuse probleem hetkega lahendatud. Samuti oleks kadunud üks väga oluline investeerimis heidutav faktor, nimelt võimalike (atraktiivsete) investeerimisobjektide süstemaatiline defitsiit.
• Kõigi riigikaitselist jm strateegilist tähtsust mitteomavate riigiettevõtete vähemusosaluste noteerimine börsil. Ülekaaluka hääleõiguse saab riik tagada ka 50% +1 aktsia omamisega. Äärmisel juhul ka suurema häälte kaaluga B-aktsiate vmt. väljalaskmisega. Selleks et hoida enamusosalust, ei pea riik hoidma 100% aktsiatest enda käes. Strateegilise osaluse saavutamise piirist üle jääv aktsiate mass võiks ja saaks olla kohaliku emitentide ringi laiendamise vahend.
• Mõne kiire kasvuga tehnoloogiavaldkonna startup-rahvaaktsia esilerkimine ja noteerimine kohalikul turul. Börsil peab olema midagi väga atraktiivset mis lihtsalt niisama ei võimalda olemasoleval kapitalil tootlust saavutada, vaid mis jõuga uut kapitali (loe: taksojuhte) turule tõmbab. Selleks saab olla ainult mõni globaalse ambitsiooniga tehnoloogiavaldkonna kasvulugu. -
Balti börside aktsiate hinnainfo leht on nüüd info kuvamise osas natuke kompaktsemaks disainitud.
Teadmiseks võtta. -
Miks Balti börside käibed nii väikeseks on muutunud?
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Huvitav, kas on Maailmas veel börse, mis nii vähe oleks avatud nagu Baltikumis? Ma mõtlen, et me oleme Skandinaavia all, kus börsid töötavad nagu kogu Euroopas 10.00-18.30, Usas on 16.30-23.00 aga teoorias saab kaubelda 11.00-02.00 (ma ei tea, pole lõppu vist näinudki).
Mis takistab kui kogu Clearance käib arvutite kaudu? -
anna endale puhkust. praegusest ajast piisab tehingute tegemiseks ja õhtul lõõgastumiseks.
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"Lenzer"
Huvitav, kas on Maailmas veel börse, mis nii vähe oleks avatud nagu Baltikumis? Ma mõtlen, et me oleme Skandinaavia all, kus börsid töötavad nagu kogu Euroopas 10.00-18.30, Usas on 16.30-23.00 aga teoorias saab kaubelda 11.00-02.00 (ma ei tea, pole lõppu vist näinudki).
Mis takistab kui kogu Clearance käib arvutite kaudu?
heh olid ajad kui meie börs töötas 10-14.00 -
Tere. Sooviksin osaga portfellist järgida Balti turu käekäiku indeksi OMX Baltic Benchmark kaudu. Börsil on saadaval indeksit järgiv samanimeline fond (Orion Asset Management hallatav), kuid see on kõrgete haldustasudega. Seega ostaks ise börsilt indeksisse kuuluvad aktsiad samas osakaalus. Aktsiate nimekiri on Nasdaqi kodulehel leitav http://www.nasdaqomxnordic.com/index/index_info?Instrument=SE0001849993, aga ma ei leidnud iga aktsia osakaalu indeksis. Kas see on kusagil Nasdaqi lehel olemas?
Saan aru, et aktsiate osakaal tuleneb free floatiga korrigeeritud turuväärtusel, seega teades turuväärtust ja free floati, saaks osakaalud arvutada. Kust leiaks usaldusväärseid andmeid free floati kohta? Välismaistel lehtedel on väga erinevad andmed, nt LHV1T kohta Yahoo ütleb floatiks 7.8M, aga markets.ft.com 16.11M.
Oodatud ka muud kommentaarid antud lähenemise poolt/vastu. Tänan. -
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"mikk"
Tere. Sooviksin osaga portfellist järgida Balti turu käekäiku indeksi OMX Baltic Benchmark kaudu. Börsil on saadaval indeksit järgiv samanimeline fond (Orion Asset Management hallatav), kuid see on kõrgete haldustasudega. .
Miks on indeksfondil kõrged haldustasud? Tulenevalt Balti turu vähesest likviidsusest? LHV võiks kaaluda oma indeksfondi sinna kõrvale. -
Tänan tabeli eest. Paistab, et praeguseks on indeksist välja jäänud INR1L, KNF1T, OLF1R ja juurde tulnud ARC1T, EGR1T, HMX1R ja HPR1T.
Tasude kohta ei tea, võib-olla konkurentsi puudumisest, tegu vist ainukese seda indeksit järgiva fondiga. Viimase infolehe alusel haldustasu 1% ja kogukulu (total expense ratio) 3.11%... -
Ohjah, tundub et Eesti "investorid" on kõik ikkagi ainult spekulandid.
Ärileht: Eestlased on Läti tanklaketi aktsiad lätlastele maha müünudKui Läti tanklaketi Virši IPOs olid rohkem kui pooled investorid Eestist, siis nüüdseks on osakaal langenud, märkis Läti Delfile Virši juht Jānis Vība.
Praegu on eestlasi aktsionäridest vaid umbes 20%, lätlasi aga ligi 70%. „Me suutsime äratada Läti investorite uinunud geeni,“ ütles Vība.
Läti tanklaketi Virši aktsiaid märgiti 2021. aasta novembris kokku 7,8 miljoni euro eest ning rohkem kui pooled investorid olid toona Eestist. Ühe aktsia hinnaks oli 4,49 eurot. -
PR: Pan-Baltic capital market to benefit from single index classification
The Ministries of Finance of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the European Commission (EC) and Nasdaq Baltic jointly welcome the MSCI initiative to regionally consolidate the Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian markets for the purpose of index construction and maintenance.
The new single index, which will launch as of the August 2023 Index Review, will allow the three markets to be integrated into the MSCI universe and raise the profile of the region among international investors who track MSCI indices.
The approach is in line with the efforts of all relevant stakeholders to create a single pan-Baltic capital market – as outlined by a Memorandum of Understanding signed in 2017 – and is a building block of the European Union’s Capital Markets Union initiative.
The MSCI Baltic Index will initially be constructed based on Frontier Market constituents from Estonia and Lithuania. The regional index may include Latvian securities in the future, should any such securities become eligible. Ultimately, the regional consolidation will result in a larger MSCI Baltic Index with more constituents – which would have not been the case if each jurisdiction were screened separately.
“This is an extremely positive step reflecting, in part, five years of constructive dialogue with global institutional investors and index providers,” commented Jim Turnbull, Deputy Director of Capital and Financial Markets at the EBRD. “We need to support the momentum by building an inventory of debt and equity products and encouraging secondary market liquidity.”
He continued: “It is encouraging to see that the Baltic states stakeholders remain committed to encouraging new companies – including state-owned enterprises – to open their capital structures and tap the capital market. The EBRD remains focused on supporting further policy initiatives and providing investment support across asset classes to achieve these goals.”
Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, said: “I welcome the initiative to launch the MSCI Baltic Index as a further step towards the creation of a single pan-Baltic capital market. A single index classification will raise the region’s profile for international investors and provide a basis for deeper cross-border capital markets across Europe as we advance with building a true Capital Markets Union. It will also help to overcome some of the constraints that Baltic economies face in accessing finance and attracting investment due to their limited size. This initiative sends a clear message to global investors that Baltic countries are open for investment. I am glad the reform also builds on the support provided by the Commission through the technical support instrument.”
Mart Võrklaev, Minister of Finance of Estonia, said: “This is another important step in the regional cooperation of three Baltic states in developing our capital markets together. We already harmonised our covered bonds framework in this corner of Europe a few years ago. This is a good example of how small EU member states can win more from cooperation than from doing it alone. In this respect, the MSCI Baltic Index puts Baltic companies on the radar of a larger pool of international investors. We hope that the MSCI Baltic Index attracts more foreign investment and improves access to capital for Baltic companies, which will benefit our economy.”
Arvils Aseradens, Minister of Finance of Latvia, said: “We welcome the introduction of the MSCI Baltic Index and closer cooperation on capital market development in the Baltic states. The index will improve the visibility of our companies to investors. The Latvian government has committed itself to activating operations on the capital market and facilitating listings of state-owned enterprises.”
Gintarė Skaistė, Minister of Finance of Lithuania, said: "I am very pleased that our efforts of the last few years are producing tangible results – the MSCI Baltic Index. Merging the markets will increase the competitiveness of the Baltic countries by developing capital markets and promoting international investments. Moreover, the integrated Baltic securities trading infrastructure will encourage more companies to take advantage of the significantly increased capital market, open up their capital structures and use other instruments, issue shares and bonds, with the help of which the capital raised could be used to finance projects."
Kaarel Ots, CEO of Nasdaq Tallinn, said: “Regional consolidation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the new MSCI Baltic Index will support a common regional capital market by overcoming the constraints we would face due to our individual sizes. This is definitely a step in the right direction, but the index will still be part of the Frontier Markets. Our ambition is to upgrade our region to a Developed Market classification one day.” -
Rahandusministeerium: Kapitali ülebaltiline kaasamine muutub lihtsamaks
Rahandusminister Mart Võrklaeva sõnul on töös mitu seadusemuudatust, mis lihtsustavad väike- ja keskmise suurusega ettevõtetel Baltikumis kapitali kaasamist.
Valitsus kiitis eelmisel nädalal heaks ja saatis riigikokku eelnõu, millega tõstetakse väärtpaberite avalikul pakkumisel väärtpaberiprospekti koostamise nõude lävend seniselt 5 miljonilt 8 miljoni euroni. Samal ajal on ühtlustamisel ka nõuded, mille alusel pakkuda väärtpabereid Baltikumis lihtsustatud korras.
„Meie kapitaliturg on olnud üsna pankadekeskne ja mujalt kapitali kaasamine on ettevõtete jaoks keeruline ja kulukas. Koostöös Läti ja Leeduga ühtlustame nõudeid, mille alusel saab aktsiaid pakkuda kuni 8 miljoni euro ulatuses lihtsustatud korras. See võimaldab ettevõtetel väiksemate kuludega kapitali kaasata kogu Baltikumis korraga,“ sõnas rahandusminister Mart Võrklaev.
„Loodan et see järgmine samm Baltikumi kapitalituru elavdamiseks meelitab siia ka senisest enam välisinvestoreid, kelle jaoks meie turud eraldivõttes on seni liiga väikeseks jäänud,“ lisas rahandusminister.
Läti ja Leedu on prospekti koostamise lävendi 8 miljonile ära tõstnud ja seal on juba võimalik avalikke pakkumisi kuni selle lävendini korraldada ainult teabedokumendi alusel. Teabedokumendis esitatakse kokkuvõtvalt emitendi ja pakutavate väärpaberitega seotud teave, hoiatatakse väärtpaberi pakkumisega kaasnevate olulisemate riskide eest ja realiseerumisega kaasnevate võimalike kahjude eest. Üks suurimaid erisusi prospekti ja teabedokumendi puhul lisaks lihtsustatud nõuetele on see, et kui prospekti peab heaks kiitma Finantsinspektsioon, siis teabedokumenti mitte. See tuleb selgelt ka teabedokumendis välja tuua. Kokkuvõttes tähendab see seda, et investorid peavad olema ise väga hoolikad kui otsustavad konkreetsesse projekti oma raha paigutada.
Prospekti lävend ei mõjuta väärtpaberite börsil noteerimist, kuna siis tuleb igal juhul prospekt koostada. Küll aga mõjutab lävend alternatiivturul First North kauplemist, kuna seal pole prospekt kohustuslik kui emissioon jääb hetkel alla 5 miljoni ja muudatuste jõustumisel alla 8 miljoni euro.
Euroopa Komisjoni hinnangu järgi võivad prospekti koostamise kulud suuremate ettevõtete puhul ulatuda 300 000 euroni. Eestis jäävad need valdavalt sellest siiski ilmselt üksjagu madalamaks.
Euroopa tasandil on samuti seaduseid muutmises hetkel. Peamine muudatus on EU Listing Act, ehk Noteerimise seadus.
Listings on European stock exchanges: Council and Parliament agree on new actThe Council and the Parliament have reached a provisional agreement on the listing act, a package that will make EU public capital markets more attractive for EU companies and make it easier for companies of all sizes, including SMEs, to list on European stock exchanges.
The agreement will cut red tape and costs to help European companies of all sizes, in particular small and medium-sized enterprises, access more sources of financing.
This will encourage companies to get and remain listed on EU public markets. Easier access to public markets will allow companies to better diversify and complement available sources of funding.
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The agreement found on the Listing Package will reduce the administrative burden for companies and contribute to making EU capital markets more attractive fully in line with the objectives of the capital markets union. It is important that we continue to encourage companies to list on the stock exchange while at the same time ensuring high levels of investor protection and market integrity throughout Union.
Vincent Van Peteghem, Minister of Finance of Belgium
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The provisional agreement strikes a balance between alleviating ongoing disclosure requirements and maintaining market integrity and efficiency in the market abuse framework by narrowing down the scope of the disclosure obligation in case of protracted processes (multi-stage events). The immediate disclosure obligation no longer covers the intermediate steps of that process, instead, the issuers only need to disclose inside information related to the event that is completing the protracted process.
It also alleviates the investment research rules in order to increase the level of research on SMEs in the EU. This is important to inform potential investors about the prospect of investing in SMEs and improves the visibility of listed issuers.
The Council and the Parliament agreed that investment firms must ensure that the issuer-sponsored research they distribute is produced in compliance with the EU code of conduct.
The agreement also allows the re-bundling of payments for research and execution of orders.
The agreement between the Council and the Parliament reinforces cooperation and coordination between ESMA and the national competent authorities for instance on cooperation agreements with third countries.
The directive on multiple-vote shares has also been provisionally agreed between the Council and the Parliament.
Next steps
The text of the provisional agreement will now be finalised and presented to member states’ representatives and the European Parliament for approval. If approved, the Council and the Parliament will have to formally adopt the texts.
Background
On 7 December 2022, the Commission put forward measures to alleviate – through a new listing package– the administrative burden for companies of all sizes, in particular SMEs, so that they can better access public capital market funding, without undermining market integrity and investor protection. The listing act package consists of:
* a regulation amending the prospectus regulation, market abuse regulation and the markets in financial instruments regulation;
* a directive amending the markets in financial instruments directive and repealing the listing directive;
* a directive on multiple-vote shares.
The proposal seeks to streamline the rules applicable to companies going through a listing process and companies already listed on EU public markets with an aim to simplify for the companies by alleviating their administrative burdens and costs, while preserving a sufficient degree of transparency, investor protection and market integrity.
Note on the confirmation of the final compromise text (PDF)
Final compromise text of the listing act regulation (PDF)
Final compromise text of the listing act directive (PDF)
Capital Markets Union (background information)
Suurimad muutused, mis Euroopas tulevad, on Rootsi mitmehäälelise aktsia tulek ka mujale, lisaks MIFID regulatsioonist tekkinud researchi ja kauplemise lahkulöömise osaline tagasipööramine, ehk võib uuesti hakata soft dollarite eest researchi ostma. -
Kas tänaseks on tekkinud jaeinvestorile mingeid instrumente Balti turu üksikaktsiate või indeksite shortimiseks?
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Keegi võiks esiteks Balti turu indeksaktsia ära teha, kuigi esialgu ma seda ei ostaks.
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15+ aastat tagasi oli üksikaktsiatele optsioone. Kuidas tänane seis?
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Ei ole. Seadusandluse praktika on selline, et sedalaadi asju pole enam võimalik pakkuda ega kokku pakkida.
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"Kaur"
15+ aastat tagasi oli üksikaktsiatele optsioone. Kuidas tänane seis?
Rahalises mõttes suurema portfelliga investori jaoks on Balti aktsiate optsioonid Swedbanki kaudu täitsa olemas. Võta ühendust, ehk õnnestub midagi. -
EBRD on valmis saanud järjekordse regionaalse vaate CEE regioonile. 2024 September update: Along the adjustment path (PDF).
Eesti majandus esineb üsna nõrgalt, prognoosid on alandatud ja suurim korrigeerimine.
In a typical non-EU economy in the EBRD regions the spread on medium-term government debt versus
Germany has started increasing again, to around 4.5 pp while in a typical EU economy in the EBRD
regions the spread that opened in March 2022 has been maintained at around 1 pp.
In central Europe and the Baltic states growth is expected to accelerate from 0.2 per cent in 2023 and 2
per cent year on year in the first half of 2024 to 2.3 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025. The
recovery in the region is uneven, with both upward and downward revisions since the May 2024 forecast,
reflecting a combination of weak external demand from advanced Europe and fiscal pressures amidst
continued resilience in labour markets.
Eesti GDP prognoos 2024: -0,8%, 2025: +2,5%. Revision since May 2024: 2024 -1,6%, 2025: -1,0%.
Läti GDP prognoos 2024: 0,9%, 2025: +2,4%. Revision since May 2024: 2024 -0,9%, 2025: -0,2%.
Leedu GDP prognoos 2024: 2,3%, 2025: +2,3%. Revision since May 2024: 2024 0,8%, 2025: 0,2%.
Baltikumi majandusprognoos:Central Europe and the Baltic states
Average growth in central Europe and the Baltic states (CEB) recovered from 0.2 per cent in 2023 to 2 per cent year on year in the first half of 2024. Czechia, Estonia and Latvia have experienced weak export performance, while Croatia, Lithuania, Poland, and the Slovak Republic have rebounded strongly on robust household consumption and public investment. Hungary saw robust consumption growth on the back of rising real wages, while corporate investment, especially in manufacturing, was at its lowest level since the pandemic. Rising government deficits are a source of concern, with Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic being under European Commission scrutiny, calling for tax hikes and fiscal consolidations. The war on Ukraine, energy price fluctuations and declining trade with Russia and Belarus are all exacerbating external vulnerabilities, particularly in Estonia and Latvia. Weaknesses in Germany’s industry, along with slow growth in Italy and France, are leading to weaker exports across the CEB region, with Poland, Slovenia, and Hungary experiencing large drops in exports to Germany in early 2024. Recent floods disrupted economic activity in parts of the CEB region, in particular in Czechia and Poland. However, post-flood reconstruction should boost GDP growth later this year and next year. Labour markets in Czechia, Poland, Hungary, and Slovenia remain tight, with low unemployment and significant participation of foreign workers, particularly in Poland. Skill mismatches and rising labour costs raise concerns, as large minimum wage hikes in Poland, Croatia, Hungary, and the Baltic states have contributed to rapid real wage growth.
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Estonia
Estonia’s economy has been grappling with a severe recession, the worst since 2009. Following a 3 per cent contraction in 2023, GDP fell further by 1.6 per cent year on year in the first half of 2024. The war on Ukraine has disrupted supply chains, prompting a shift from cheaper Russian and Belarusian imports to costlier alternatives. Combined with a stronger euro, this contributed to a nearly 10 per cent drop in exports over the past year. Inflation eased to 3.5 per cent in July 2024 but remains high compared with regional peers reflecting steep services inflation and a recent value added tax (VAT) increase. As a result, household consumption remains weak, constrained by low consumer confidence. Investment and hiring have also declined as businesses face rising production costs and subdued external demand. Investment dropped by 3 per cent in 2023, and the employment rate fell from 82.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2023 to 81.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2024, with unemployment rising to 7.8 per cent. Despite these challenges, Estonia is expected to remain compliant with EU deficit criteria, with the general government deficit projected to hold at 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2024. The government plans tax hikes starting in mid-2025 and a temporary corporate defence tax to support increased military spending. While the economy is forecast to contract by 0.8 per cent in 2024, growth is anticipated to return to 2.5 per cent in 2025, driven by improved external demand and domestic investment.
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Latvia
Latvia’s economy is making a slow recovery in 2024 after last year’s downturn. In 2023, GDP contracted by 0.3 per cent, but the first half of 2024 saw a modest rebound with growth of 0.3 per cent year on year. Robust nominal wage growth of over 11 per cent and a sharp drop in inflation to 0.8 per cent by July 2024, have boosted consumer confidence. At the same time, exports remain weak, particularly in wood and metal products, due to subdued demand from the Nordic markets. A Luminor Bank survey reveals persistent concerns about inflation and rising costs, shared among 40 per cent of small and medium-sized enterprises. Investment activity has stalled after a strong rebound in 2023, which was driven by accelerated public-sector projects funded by the previous EU budget cycle. In 2024, both public and private investments have stagnated, as businesses await lower interest rates and a robust recovery in demand. Foreign direct investment flows have also moderated, from 3.4 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 1.5 per cent (annualized) in early 2024. The general government deficit is set to widen to 3 per cent of GDP in 2024, reflecting increased spending on public wages and defence. Looking ahead, Latvia’s economy should gradually recover, with GDP growth projected at 0.9 per cent in 2024 and accelerating to 2.4 per cent in 2025, supported by improving export conditions.
Lithuania
Lithuania’s economy is regaining momentum, buoyed by solid household consumption, rising investment, and a recovery in services exports. After a downturn last year, GDP grew by 2.4 per cent year on year in the first half of 2024, supported by a 9.3 per cent year-on-year increase in real gross wages in the second quarter of 2024. Public investments, especially in green energy and defence, are boosting growth, while service exports, particularly transport services, are rebounding from previous global disruptions. While headline inflation stood at 1.1 per cent, services inflation reached 6.1 per cent, driven by rising labour costs. The ECB’s Harmonised Competitiveness Indicator shows a nearly 12 per cent drop in international competitiveness compared with pre-pandemic levels. Exports to Russia fell from nearly 20 per cent before 2014 to around 5 per cent of total exports in 2023, marking the steepest decline in Russia’s market share of exports among the Baltic states. Despite most exports having been redirected to the EU, Lithuania’s share of global exports fell. Unemployment stood at 8.2 per cent in mid-2024, and significant skill mismatches persist. The general government deficit is expected to widen to 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2024, driven by increased social spending and defence outlays. As financing conditions ease, GDP growth is projected to reach 2.3 per cent in 2024 and 2.5 per cent in 2025.
