Börsipäev 26. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ühe päeva oleme taas lähemal 2. augustile, mis osade arvates ei pruugigi olla päris viimane päev, mil USA valitsuse töö võlalimiidi tõstmata jätmise korral seiskub. Praeguseks näib, et Senat ja Esindajatekoda on lauale panemas oma plaanid, mis on mõlemad pigem ajutised lahendused ja seega teoorias Obama jaoks mitteaktsepteeritavad, kuid tiksuv kell ei pruugi talle muud varianti jätta. Nagu eilses börsipäevas sai välja toodud, siis Boehner sooviks võlalimiiti praegu tõsta 1 triljoni dollari võrra ja hiljem ühes mahukama kärpekavaga teha seda uuesti. Reid aga pakub välja 2,7 triljoni dollari eest kärpeid ning võlalimiidi tõstmise ulatuses, mis aitaks USA valitsusel funktsioneerida, kuniks 2012.a valimised on möödas.
USA valitsuse eelarve kärbete ja võlalimiidi debatt saab olema jätkuvalt investorite tähelepanu keskpunktis, kuid selle kõrval leidub täna ka veidi makrot, mis võiks turgudele mõju avaldada. Kell 11.30 avalikustatakse Suurbritannia teise kvartali SKT muutus, kell 16.00 Case-Schilleri USA majahindade indeks, kell 17.00 juunikuu uute majade müük, juulikuu tarbijausalduse indeks ja Richmond Fedi küsitlus. Oma kvartalitulemused raporteerivad täna enne turgu Ford, Lockheed Martin, UPS, Valero Energy, Weatherford. Pärast turgu avaldab numbrid Amazon.
USA indeksite futuurid kauplevad hetkel 0,15% plussis ja marginaalselt kõrgemal on avanemas ka Euroopa. -
Täna avaldatav CCI peaks näitama tarbijausaldust juunis. Käimasoleva US will default kampaania tulemused peaksime saama 30 augustil. Kampaania tundub edukas, teavitamine on hea, ideed on vahendatud sihtrühma käitumist mõjutavatele üksustele (Moody's, Standard & Poor's) ja arvamusliidritele. Sihtrühm on muidugi väärikas, 2/3 GDP kasvu genereeriv osa.
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Eile avaldas Netflix (NFLX) Q2 majandustulemused, mida kajastas Nelli ka eilses börsipäeva foorumis. Goldman Sachs, mis katab ettevõtet „buy“ reitinguga ja 330-lise sihiga avaldas eile õhtul analüüsi, milles põhjendatakse Q3 madalat ootust tehtud hinnamuutustega. Netflixi sõnul on neil ca 24.6 miljonit teenuste eest maksvat klienti ning tuleva kvartali klientide arvuks oodatakse 24.6 – 25.4 mln. Uue kliendi saamiseks teeb ettevõte ca $14.38 - $15.09 väärtuses kulutusi, kuid ühe kliendi pealt teenitud tulu langes kvartaliga $11.49 peale (viimase 3 aasta halvim tulemus).
Goldman kirjutab, et NFLX-i uute klientide prognoos (ca 740 000) 3. kvartaliks on pigem konservatiivne – analüütikute sõnul on enamus hinnamuutusega rahulolematuid kliente teenustest juba loobunud. GS tõi positiivse nurga alt välja EBITDA marginaali, mis langes yoy baasil küll 10 baaspunkti, kuid qoq baasil kasvas 60 baaspunkti. Marginaali parandas prognoositust väiksemad reklaamikulud (+27% yoy). Morgan Stanley hinnangul võib lähiajal ettevõtte aktsiahind langeda. Samuti tuuakse välja, et ettevõtte kasv ei ole Kanadas vastanud prognoosidele ning mitmed analüütikud on kasutanud Kanadat nii-öelda võrdlusbaasina teistest riikidest pärinevate müügitulude prognoosis – mudelid on liialt optimislikud.
Konsensuse nägemus ettevõtte aktsiapõhisest kasumist (kohandatud EPS)
Konsensuse nägemus ettevõtte müügitulust
Reed Hastings, NFLX-i CEO, on 2011. aasta algusest saati müünud turul 130 000 aktsiat. Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud tegevdirektori aktsiate müük (aktsiaid on müüdud 5 000 aktsia kaupa ning tehtud on seda 26 korral). -
Suurbritannia teise kvarali SKT kasvas kvartali baasil 0,2%, vastates konsensuse ootustele. Aasta baasil oli kasvuks 0,7%, mis jäi prognoosist 0,1 punkti võrra nõrgemaks. Teises kvartalis oli mitmeid erakorralisi tegureid, mis UK majandust mõjutasid (kuninglik pulm ja Jaapani maavärin), milleta oleks QoQ kasv olnud 0,7%. Seega võiks kolmandas kvartalis oodata korralikku tagasipõrget ning ühtlasi võiks väiksem olla täiendava stimuleerimise vajadus. GBP/ USD on uudise peale tegemas päeva tippe, kaubeldes 0,8% plusspolel @ 1,6400 USD.
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Paaris börsipäevas on Google+ plahvatuslikust kasvust varem räägitud. Täna jäi silma üks huvitav graafik, mis võrdleb Google'i loodud sotsmeedia lehelekülge Twitteri ja Facebook liikmete arvu kasvuga.
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Vaatan siin ühte vana võidunud paberinutsakat, paistab ühel S-tähega algaval firmal (ei ole Snaige) kulus umbes 400 päeva..
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NFLX puhul on ettevaatlikumate sõnavõttudega just hiljutised dg tegijad, MS ja Merriman (Merriman on eriti klapid ette pannud ettevõtte Q4 kommentaari peale). Buy peal olijad peavad afteka nõrkust ostuvõimaluseks.
Hastings müüb? Kas tal mitte ei ole neid optsiooniprogramme vähe peal? Palk on tal suht kesine. -
Ma kardan ka, et see puhas optsiooni programm. Üldiselt ei saa alati vist CEO/CFO müüke hinnata kui halba märki ettevõtte kohta. Ost aga on selge signaal, et juhid usuvad paremasse tulevikku.
http://www.gurufocus.com/stock.php?symbol=NFLX -
ymeramees, tõepoolest Merriman on NFLX-i suhtes suhteliselt negatiivselt meelestatud. Õiglaseks hinnavahemikuks on analüütikud määranud $250 – $275 (kuigi järelturul kauples NFLX $253 tasemel).
Olulisemad katkendid analüüsist:
The recent domestic price increase is projected to slow 3Q subscriber growth to 0-3% Q/Q vs. an
eight-year 2Q-to-3Q average of 8%. Following that, management expects sub growth to return to normal rates with the price increase further boosting cash flow. However, with the price increase effective in September and ultimate consumer reaction definitely unknown, we are concerned the impact could be greater and linger into 4Q.
Management noted on the call that Netflix has $2.44B in streaming contractual obligations over the coming years (with $625M due in the next year). With near-term sub growth potentially pressured and SAC increasing Q/Q for two sequential quarters (the first time since 3Q06), we are concerned we need to see domestic streaming sub growth re-accelerate in order to leverage those pending fixed costs.
As predicted with our July 6 downgrade, management again increased the projected 2H11 operating income loss from the international launches to $80M from $50-70M. Furthermore, even though this $80M figure includes some pre-spend for the 1H12 launch(es), we would expect those launch losses to layer onto continued losses from the 2H11 launches. While we understand the long-term international opportunities and need to spend early to gain a foothold ahead of competition, we remain concerned about the projected two-year ramp to profitability in each new region and a multi-year new market launch cycle that could present an earnings headwind over the next 2-3 years. -
Fordilt käibe poole pealt võimas beat
Ford Motor prelim $0.65 vs $0.60 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $33.5 bln vs $31.61 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate -
rinx, kõik müügid on seotud optsioonide programmiga (rohelised lipukesed).
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Fordi teise poolaasta kommentaarid natuke nukrad.
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Citi tõstab täna Finisar (FNSR) reitingu Hoia pealt Osta peale koos $ 24 hinnasihiga.
Stable Demand, New Products Drive Oct Revenue Growth — With base business stabilizing, we believe Tunable-XFP (new product initiative) should help drive recovery in October quarter revenue growth. T-XFP are important industry growth engine, offering carriers/OEMs on-the-fly reconfigurability and lower spares cost. We believe this second point, along with end-of-life of some older form-factor transceivers, caused some disruption as carriers/OEMs worked down fixed components. However, we believe this should be behind FNSR exiting July qtr.
Analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust stabiilse nõudluse ja uute toodetega, mis peaks järgmise kvartali käibe taastumisele kaasa aitama.
Sequential Growth Should be an Inflection Point — FNSR shares have historically had strong correlation to consensus FY2 consensus revision trends . If our assumption of July qtr revenue trough correct, we believe revenue/EPS trends should improve 2HCY11, with more 1HCY12 significant ramp. Risks Center on Timing, Sentiment — Risks to a constructive view center on our call for July revenue trough. However, unlike pre-April results period, when we were concerned that consensus estimates were significantly too high, we believe there is now limited downside to estimates and thus limited downside to FNSR shares.
Lisaks eelnevale usuvad analüütikud, et firma nõrk prognoos aprillis käesolevale kvartalile (mis võeti vastu eriti negatiivselt, kuna firma oli üks favoriite sektoris ning näidanud konsensuse ootustest paremaid kvartalitulemusi ) on loonud FNSR aktsiale nüüd põhja ja analüütikud on veendunud, et riski/kasumi suhe on hetkel viimase kasuks ning järgmine kvartal tuleb hea tänu olukorra stabiliseerumisele varude osas ning oluliselt paranenud marginaalistruktuurile.
Stock Call — Buy FNSR. We believe a July revenue trough should help put a floor under FNSR shares, setting up positive consensus revenue trends over the next year. Our target price is now $24, based on a target 15x P/E multiple (a 15% premium to S&P 500, inline with historical average & modest discount to current levels). We believe High Risk is now warranted given improved balance sheet and significantly improved margin structure; current inventory correction de-risks intermediate cycle view. Lastly, we believe components industry has largely consolidated and we see little risk of FNSR making another significant acquisition.
Citi on FNSR-i suhteliselt hästi katnud ja kuigi nende hinnasiht eriti uhke pole, siis olulisemaks võib selle calli puhul osutuda fakt, et alates aasta algusest on FNSR aktsiad kaotanud oma väärtusest üle 50% ning Citi analüütikute viide võimalikule põhjale aktsiahinnas võib tekitada täna ostuhuvi.
Eelturul on aktsia kauplemas 3,3% plusspoolel ($ 19,29), aga ootaks ära avanemise, mis võiks pakkuda natuke soodsamaid hinnatasemeid. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RSH +14.6%, SANM +10.6%, COMV +10.5%, BRCM +8.3%, WFT +7.5%, HLX +7.4%, BIDU +6.7%, LXK +6.4% (light volume), SVU +5.6%, COV +5.3%, CMI +5%, UA +4.6%, USAT +4.4%, MSPD +3.8%, (light volume), CR +2.3% (light volume), F +1.7%.
M&A news: OCNF +83.2% (trading under OCNFD; DryShips to acquire the outstanding shares of OceanFreight for $19.85/share), SONE +27.6% (ACI Worldwide proposes to acquire S1 corporation for $9.50/share in Cash and Stock or ~$540 mln).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RIO +1.4%, MT +0.9%, BHP +0.8%, GOLD +0.8%.
Select China internet related names getting boost from BIDU: DANG +4.7%, SOHU +2.9%, YOKU +2.4%, SINA +2.2%, NTES +1.1%, .
A few European drug names seeing early strength: GSK +3.0%, AZN +1.3%.
Other news: APP +31.1% (American Apparel Announces Exclusive eBay Partnership), CIGX +9% (still checking), FNSR +7.8% (continued momentum), CHTP +7.5% ( provides Preliminary Data From Exploratory Phase II Study Demonstrates Significant Activity of Droxidopa in Adult Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder), PSTI +6.2% (announced that its wholly owned Iraeli unit has entered into an agreement for the leasing and construction of a new state-of-the-art GMP manufacturing facility), AIXG +5.3% (still checking), ASTM +3.8% (announces agreement from FDA on special protocol assessment for Phase 3 clinical trial in no-option critical limb ischemia patients), HII +2.1% (Greenlight Capital discloses 5.1% passive stake), EBAY +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GM +1% (ticking higher with F).
Analyst comments: FNSR +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup), MDP +1.5% (initiated with Overweight at Piper Jaffray), S +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC ), FFIV +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Ticonderoga), GOOG +0.4% (initiated with a Buy at Credit Agricole). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: UCTT -10.2%, STM -9.2%, (also downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas), NFLX -8.9%, EK -8.2%, WAT -7.3%, SONO -6.9% (ticking lower following trade resumption), VDSI -5.3%, VLO -5%, AEIS -4.6%, CENX -4.6%, SPWRA -4%, PCX -3.3%, MMM -2.7%, UBS -2.5%, QGEN -2.5%, NUVA -1.9% (light volume), BP -1.9%, X -1.9%, DB -1.7%, .
Other news: FEN -5.7% (commenced a public offering of 2,800,000 common shares of beneficial interest), BAS -4.4% (files for 18.1 mln share common stock offering by the selling stockholders and announced commencement of a secondary public offering of 9,000,000 shares of common stock owned by DLJ Merchant Banking Partners III, L.P. and affiliated funds ), STEC -3.1% (disclosed that the SEC is conducting a formal investigation involving trading in the co's securities).
Analyst comments: NVDA -2.2% (downgraded to Sell at Needham), GES -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard), EE -1.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), HCA -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), WRC -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lazard Capital). -
May Case-Shiller 20-city Index -4.5% vs -4.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior -3.96%
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Strike a Balance
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/26/2011 8:52 AM EDT
"Every man must patiently bide his time. He must wait -- not in listless idleness but in constant, steady, cheerful endeavors, always willing and fulfilling and accomplishing his task, that when the occasion comes he may be equal to the occasion."
--Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
One of the most overlooked qualities of successful trading is the ability to be patient when the market is offering few opportunities. There is a general perception that traders are aggressively moving in and out of dozens of positions all day no matter what is going on in the market. The truth is that the best traders often do little for long periods as they wait for high-percentage trading opportunities to develop. When the time is right, they shift into action and seize the opportunities that they were anticipating.
This ability to shift from watchful patience to aggressive action and then back again is a key aspect of effective trading. The market does not offer opportunities in a steady, regular stream. There will be times, like now, when the trading is slow and random with little edge. Good traders recognize when the odds aren't particularly good and don't force trades just because they are bored. What good traders do exceptionally well is shift into action when the environment changes and the odds move into their favor.
If you keep this in mind, it can make it much easier to deal with a rather tedious market environment like the one we have now. We already have some slow summer trading, and earnings reports have not been particularly strong so far this quarter. But what has really made things tiresome is the political debate over the debt ceiling, which is pushing things around in a desultory manner.
We keep hearing how economic disaster is inevitable if a deal isn't done, but the market is not acting as if we are on the brink of doom. We are simply biding our time while politicians bicker and eventually do what needs to be done so they can delay coming up with any real solutions.
As a trader, I don't particularly enjoy this sort of environment since it is tough to be very aggressive and I'd rather be busier. On the other hand, I recognize that if I stay patient and keep looking, opportunities will pop up. The important thing is to cultivate a mindset that allows me to move from being patient and watchful to being aggressive and active when conditions change. I don't want to become so bored and uninterested that I lose my edge, but I don't want to be so anxious to stay busy that I pursue trades that offer little edge.
We are at a juncture where we simply need to wait for further developments. We are going to dance around the debt ceiling for a while longer. We are going to spike up and down to each new development and eventually, when the news is out, the market will be in a better position to develop a trend. Meanwhile, we can find a few trades here and there. But the randomness of the action requires that we move fast and play tight.
This market can be irritating if you don't have the right mindset. If you recognize that you might not be able to be as aggressive as you'd like, it can help keep you in the right frame of mind while you contemplate what is going on. The one great certainty about the market is that conditions will eventually change.
We have a very quiet start shaping up with good earnings from Baidu (BIDU) and a poor report from Netflix (NFLX) . The market has ignored the president's prime-time comments and isn't concerned about the likelihood of a debt-ceiling deal. -
Goldman Sachi ülevaade USA võlalimiidi vaidlustest.
House Republican proposal: $3trn deficit reduction, $2.6trn debt limit increase, with both accomplished over two stages. The structure is in line with reports over the weekend: a $1trn debt limit increase coupled with $1.2 trillion in savings over ten years from discretionary caps, which would be enforced with across the board spending caps if not met. A second debt limit increase of $1.6trn would take effect only if the reforms proposed by a special fiscal committee are adopted. That committee would be charged with proposing deficit reduction of $1.8 trillion over ten years, with a deadline of November 23, and the recommendations would be subject to an up or down vote in the House or Senate (in other words, Congress must vote on the plan, with no procedural obstacles, but it could still reject the proposal if it chose to). The Democratic objection to the House proposal, which was reiterated by President Obama this evening, is that the need for a second debt limit debate would create additional uncertainty and would essentially be a replay of the current debate.
Senate Democratic proposal: $2.7trn spending cut, $2.4trn debt limit increase, both in one stage. The proposal envisions $2.7trn in spending cuts over ten years, but while some of the cuts would produce tangible savings, the bill would change the fiscal outlook less than the headline numbers imply. Among the tangible savings: (1) $1.2trn from discretionary spending caps, similar to the House bill; (2) $100bn in cuts to non-healthcare mandatory spending $15bn from spectrum auctions; $10bn from agricultural subsidies; and unspecified savings from student loan changes. The remainder comes mainly from capping funding for overseas military activity at $576bn over the next ten years. This would essentially codify what is already an expected outcome related to Iraq and Afghanistan, but would show up as roughly $1 trillion over ten years in savings compared with the CBO baseline. However, most realistic baselines such as the fiscal commission’s “plausible baseline,” CBO’s “alternate scenario,” as well as our own, already assume an eventual phase down of troops similar to what is proposed. Like the House proposal, the bill envisions a special fiscal committee with instructions to report by November 23, and vote by December 23, 2011. The committee would be given a goal to reduce the deficit to 3% of GDP or less, but there would be no enforcement mechanism to enforce this outcome.
The President’s proposal: Still focused on a grand bargain. Although neither the House nor the Senate’s approach involves revenues, and neither reduces the deficit by $4 trillion, the President mentioned once again that he would like to see both aspects this evening, while lending support to the Senate’s approach as a fallback.
Lühidalt öeldes, milleski "konstruktiivses" ei ole osapooled kokku leppinud. -
July Consumer Confidence 59.5 vs 56.0 Briefing.com consensus; prior 58.5
June New Home Sales 312 K vs 320K Briefing.com consensus; Prior revised to 315K from 319K -
Kui jätkata USA võlalimiidi teemaga, siis BPC hinnangul ei ole riigile määravaks kuupäevaks mitte Timothy Geithneri poolt teatatud 2. august, aga rahandusministeeriumi vabad vahendid lõppevad hoopiski 9. augustil. Küll tähendab see seda, et kui valitsus otsustab tasuda võlakoorma pealt intressi, tagada kodanikele sotsiaalkindlustus, maksta Medicare/Medicaid eest, finantseerida HUD programme (vaeste eluasemed), maksta veteranidele pensioni, tagada töötutele töötukindlustus ja maksta stipendiumi saanud noorte õppekulude eest (kokku summas $173.9 miljardit), siis paraku jäävad palgata riigitöötajad ja sõjaväelased, lõpetada tuleb igasugune sõjaline tegevus Iraagis ja Afganistaanis ning ühelgi ministeeriumil ei tohi olla jooksvaid kulusid (kokku summas $132.8 miljardit). Allolev graafik annab ülevaate USA valitsuse vabadest vahenditest (kuigi tegemist ei ole reaalse stsenaariumiga).
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FNSR oli täna väga kena, aga paraku aktsia enam eelturu tasemetest soodsamat hinnataset ei pakkunud. Aktsia avanes $ 19,41 pealt ehk 4% ülevalt ja on alates avanemisest stabiilselt ülespoole liikunud. FNSR kaupleb hetkel $ 20,40 kandis, 9,2% plusspoolel.
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$35 bln 2-yr Note Auction Results: 0.417%; Bid/Cover 3.14x (Prior 3.09x, 12-auction avg 3.37x); Indirect Bidders 27.7% (Prior 22.0%, 12-auction avg 32.0%)
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Kes teab, millal lõpeb Pandora insiderite lockup periood?
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montes
Kes teab, millal lõpeb Pandora insiderite lockup periood?
http://ipoportal.edgar-online.com/ipo/displayFundamentals.asp?cikid=405127&fnid=66361&IPO=1&coname=PANDORA+MEDIA%2C+INC. -
JP76
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